Canada’s opportunity: The urgency for becoming a global energy superpower

Good morning.

Thank you for coming today. I understand that people have choices as to where they spend their time.

I am grateful that you have chosen to attend, and I genuinely appreciate your time and interest.

First, I would like to remember the four soldiers who died at CFB Wainwright last weekend, and those who are still recovering in hospital. These Canadians all chose to serve our country and put others before themselves. I have had the opportunity to speak with military leadership over the years, as some of Cenovus’s operations in Alberta are near military bases, and I have always had immense respect for the responsibilities they take on. I honour their service, and my thoughts are with their families, friends and colleagues.

Over the past number of months, and for numerous reasons, there has been increased interest and urgency across this country around the notion of transforming Canada into a “global energy superpower.”

There has been a shift in our collective thinking, driven by geopolitics, nationalization of supply chains and the deterioration of our domestic economy.

In particular, there is renewed interest in responsibly producing, growing and monetizing our vast national resource endowment to the benefit of our quality of life and future generations of Canadians.

A recognition that access to abundant, affordable and reliable energy systems are a requirement in maintaining our first-world standard of living, our national network of social programs and bolstering a healthy, growing economy.

The national narrative has shifted from believing in a bloodless and rapid transition away from conventional energy systems, to an understanding that conventional energy systems are enduring, difficult to replace and beneficial to our economy and quality of life.

Further, a growing recognition and acceptance that natural resource extraction and development are fundamental to our energy security, which is a critical and necessary precondition in maintaining our national sovereignty. 

With today’s technology, and with hundreds of billions of dollars being spent on alternative energy sources, hydrocarbons still supply well over 80% of the world’s primary energy demand, making them essential in any discussion of energy security – and to how we evolve into a global energy superpower.

What excites me the most about this collective epiphany is that the concept of energy security and the vision of Canada becoming a global energy superpower, together with the evolving federal and provincial policies required to take us there, are rooted in the realities of physics, chemistry, economics, finance and environmental science.

Whereas the climate agenda of the past decade was rooted in politics, ideology and dogma.

History has shown that whenever politics and ideology butt up against physics and economics, physics and economics are undefeated.

Most nations have walked back their climate policies or net zero by 2050 ambitions, recognizing that there is no clear path to achieving these goals and the consequences have led to energy insecurity, energy unaffordability and energy scarcity.

Most countries are acting in their own energy self-interest, taking advantage of those energy sources to which they have an endowment and/or a competitive advantage. Most recognize the growing need for energy and the relationship between energy, sovereignty and quality of life. Canada is no different.

So today, Canada has a choice as we come to a significant inflection point. We have a tremendous opportunity to pivot and live up to our potential as a country, and ensure we maintain an enviable quality of life for today and for future generations.

Today I would like to make the case that Canada should not just entertain the idea of becoming a global energy superpower, but pursue it with a sense of urgency and determination.

There are very few industries where Canada competes on a global scale. We have very few industries where Canadian companies are internationally recognized as global leaders. Energy production and transmission is one area where we do have global scale and global reach.

Today, Canada’s oil and gas sector directly generates about 6% of our GDP and 20% of our exports. But it can – and should – be much more.

It is no secret that Canada is blessed with energy and resource abundance. However, energy superpowers are not defined by the mere presence of resources in the ground. They are defined by their contribution to the global energy system.

Canada has the world’s fourth-largest oil reserves, immense natural gas and coal reserves, and the world’s third-largest uranium reserves. We are one of the world’s largest developers and producers of hydroelectric power.

We are the fourth-largest producer of oil and the fifth-largest producer of natural gas. By any measure we are a prominent actor on the global energy stage. We are consistently and emphatically recognized as the world’s most responsible and reliable energy producer across a broad range of metrics.

With an endowment of riches like these, with development credentials like we have, and a relatively small population of about 40 million, our quality of life, our economy and our standard of living should be the envy of the world – and yet it isn’t.

Our national GDP per capita is roughly 61,000 dollars, which would put us on par with the lowest-ranked states in the U.S., Alabama, Mississippi and Arkansas.

Our median household income in Canada is about 76,000 dollars, lower than the United States’ 102,000.

And no one would suggest the Americans are just smarter or harder working than Canadians.

These metrics have been declining on a relative basis over time. Our relative quality of life, in comparison to the U.S., has been declining over the last decade, not ascending.

The cause of this deterioration lies with us. We have no further to look than the closest mirror. Despite our enviable position, Canada has had difficulty getting out of its own way. More concerning, in many cases, we have deliberately hobbled ourselves.

To talk specifically about the oil and gas industry, Canada has myopically focused on ineffective, ill-advised climate policies to the exclusion of the multitude of benefits responsible energy development has brought, and can bring, to this country.

We have allowed the growing global demand for oil and gas to be met by countries like the United States, China, Russia and Qatar, while we have chosen not to compete or participate.

We have layered on complex, ineffective and costly regulations and policies that uniquely eroded the competitiveness of the Canadian energy industry relative to its global peers.

Over the past decade, we have continued to add incremental burdens and costs. The industrial carbon tax, the carbon cap, methane regulations, clean fuel regulations, clean electricity regulations, permitting delays, the Impact Assessment Act, increased taxation and regulatory burdens, the west coast tanker ban. To name a few.

All of this conspired to make Canadian energy development un-investable.

And the results were very predictable. Capital fled the country, foreign producers left for more competitive jurisdictions and the global energy markets moved on without Canada.

Canada forwent hundreds of billions of dollars of investment, resulting in the export of jobs, royalties and taxes to other oil and gas-producing countries. Yet the world continued to demand growing amounts of oil and gas. 

Not one less barrel of oil, nor one less cubic foot of natural gas, was demanded and produced globally.

The only impact of the regulations was that those barrels and molecules didn’t come from Canada. They came from other countries, with lower environmental standards and poorer human rights records.

Today, the vision and business case to transform Canada into a global energy superpower has never been more clear or more compelling, and despite the focus of the last decade, we have a second chance. An opportunity to course correct.

I believe Canadians now have a common and growing understanding of the need, and a shared vision of the possibilities.

To this end, I give the federal and Alberta governments the credit they deserve. Aligning on the vision and business case, and working with industry to achieve this, is a bold step. And this step did not come without political liability.

It took real fortitude and vision to change our trajectory, to understand that we were headed in the wrong direction and to embrace the necessary change to benefit Canada.

In my mind, this is what leadership is all about. And it is clear we have this at both levels of government.

Agreeing on the vision and business case across the various levels of government, industry and the population was tough enough.

Now we are faced with the challenge of turning this vision of Canada as a global energy superpower into reality.

In my mind, this will require three things. 

1. The development of a competitive regulatory and policy framework
2. An enduring set of policies that continue to attract capital and maintain confidence in Canada as a country to invest in, and
3. The need for Canada to move from being a price taker for our resources to a strategic player in global energy

So what does that look like?

In March of 2025, and then again in September of the same year, more than 90 CEOs from Canada’s natural resource sector signed a letter to Prime Minister Carney calling for him to “Build Canada Now.” 

The letter advocated for the regulatory and policy changes required to make Canada’s regulatory framework competitive with other sovereign nations. It was a road map to unlock the development of Canada’s resource potential and begin the process of transforming Canada into a global energy superpower.

The five tenets that were highlighted in the letter, which required comprehensive overhaul, aligned quite well with Alberta Premier Smith’s “nine bad laws.”

The five tenets for focused policy reform included:

1. Significantly simplify regulations
2. Shorten the time frames for project approvals
3. Commit to grow oil and gas production, not limit it
4. Build a fiscal framework that attracts investment, and
5. Incent Indigenous opportunities

By comprehensively reforming or repealing the policies of the last decade, as they relate to these five tenets, we can transform the regulatory framework from being un-investable to internationally competitive.

To date, we have made progress on these five tenets, but we have not fully embraced the policy reforms that are required to transform our regulatory framework to become globally competitive.

The changes that have been made should be celebrated, they are necessary – but not sufficient. They have transformed the Canadian oil and gas sector from being un-investable to investable – but not globally competitive, which is a prerequisite to becoming a global energy superpower.

The reforms to date do not completely repair the poor policy decisions of the past, and they increase government intervention in the markets, including a shift toward a more active role in capital allocation rather than limiting government’s role to the traditional work of providing policy and regulatory frameworks.

Rather than removing bad policy and regulation, and replacing it with new streamlined policy, we have, in certain cases, papered over bad policy with new policy designed to create exceptions and loopholes.

The trilateral MOU between the federal government, the province of Alberta and the Oil Sands Alliance is a prime example of how complicated this environment has become.

Described as a “grand bargain,” the MOU really has three pieces:

1. It amends and codifies some existing climate policies
2. It provides incentives for the industry to grow, and 
3. It unlocks additional market egress in the form of a west coast pipeline

As it relates to climate policy, the MOU imposes a reduced industrial carbon tax on the industry, escalating to 140 dollars per tonne by 2040. As I have argued in the past, this is a unique tax on Canadian energy. No other major oil and gas producing nation imposes this on themselves – it drives investment out of the industry rather than incenting additional carbon reduction, and sends no price signal to the consumer.

It is purely an additional tax burden on the industry that makes Canadian energy less competitive.

The MOU also requires industry to capture 6 megatonnes of CO2, on an annual basis, by 2035. Again, this is a unique cost that no other oil and gas producing nation would impose on itself, one that will cost industry and Canadian taxpayers approximately 10 billion dollars to construct. There are no revenues associated with this project, only costs.

When operational, this carbon capture system will capture 6 megatonnes a year or about 0.016% of global emissions.

The quid pro quo for codifying these climate policy costs is that Canada has dropped the carbon cap, relaxed the clean electricity regulations and moved forward with financial incentives included in Bill C-38 – the mega tax deduction – and governments are expected to provide additional fiscal incentives for growth.

When combined, the climate policies together with the countervailing growth policies and fiscal incentives are a net positive to industry and will unlock some growth. But it is a complicated deal which does not go far enough to make us competitive on a global scale.

The third leg under the MOU is additional egress to the west coast, in the form of the one million barrels per day Pacific Link pipeline. Market access is a prerequisite for production growth, and diversifying markets beyond our traditional trading partners is a noble and necessary ambition.

Rather than repealing or amending the legislation that would allow this pipeline to be designed, constructed and operated by private industry, we have chosen instead to leave the legislation in place, declare this a project of national interest and have our federal and provincial governments act as proponents.

The result is that the pipeline is expected to cost between 35 and 45 billion dollars, which is 3 to 4 times the cost of a rival private sector-sponsored pipeline to the U.S. Gulf Coast. It will require public funding to make it commercially viable, while remaining un-investable in the private sector without significant public sector support.

As a whole, this MOU will grow oil and gas production, and it is a net positive. It will reposition the industry from being un-investable to investable, but we still require comprehensive policy and regulatory reform to build a globally competitive regulatory environment, which is a necessary precondition to becoming a global energy superpower.

Oil and gas producers shouldn’t be looking to Venezuela, Iraq or Argentina to invest their next dollar of capital. They should be looking to Canada.

The second requirement is an enduring set of policies that continue to attract capital and maintain confidence in Canada.

Assuming we can get the required policy and regulatory reforms, as a country we need to have the internal fortitude to stick with them.

Capital does not get allocated to align with four-year political cycles. Capital is dispassionate and goes to where it can achieve the highest risk-adjusted returns. Much of that risk, in today’s world, is political risk.

We can see what poor energy policy has done to energy investment in Europe – and the corresponding consequences. Should the political winds change, it will take years for energy companies to recommit capital there. Confidence in committing capital to invest in particular jurisdictions is much like reputation – it takes a lifetime to earn and five minutes to destroy. An escalator up and an elevator down.

Unlike politics, there are no “ruptures” in energy systems. They are built over decades with continuous investment and they degrade over decades as technology changes or economic circumstances change.

By their very nature, they are designed to be enduring, reliable, ubiquitous and predictable. This type of investment requires a stable and competitive regulatory environment with consistent, and in some cases, increasing investments of capital.

Our integrated North American energy systems that span everything from oil and gas to electricity to refined products did not evolve overnight. They were consciously built over many decades, as the result of decades of stable and concurrent policy on both sides of our border.

Similarly, these systems cannot be unwound or painlessly rerouted because political leaders decide they don’t need our energy or decide they want energy sources generated differently. The energy systems we have built are fundamental to our security and will endure political cycles.

Becoming an energy superpower will require us to build new energy systems and supply chains, while deepening existing systems and supply chains – and that will take time and require stable competitive regulations.

The third requirement in becoming an energy superpower is to evolve from being a price taker for our products to being a strategic global player.

The Canadian energy industry and its associated energy companies are some of the largest in the world. Whether it is upstream production in the oil sands or Montney, midstream pipeline companies or integrated producers, Canadian companies are world class and compete on a global scale.

Energy is something Canada does very well, whether we measure success by production, market capitalization or social and environmental measures. Canadian energy companies can compete with anyone.

Becoming a global energy superpower will require us to ensure we have new routes to market, to diversify our customer base, as well as strengthening our existing market base to the United States and beyond.

We can never again hold ourselves hostage to international markets as the internal costs are too much.

Growing our production base will require us to deliberately place our products in the marketplace where we can get the highest and best price we deserve, versus dumping them at the first point of fiscalization because we don’t have additional infrastructure or access.

With expanded infrastructure to tidewater through the TMX pipeline and LNG Canada, we can access additional markets, we can capture global pricing and we can narrow the price differential.

These two projects are analogous to why the Pacific Link pipeline is so important.

But if we do these things – if we implement a competitive regulatory and policy framework, if we can stop the policy churn and move towards being a strategic global energy player – then the prize for Canada is immense. 

With these structural changes, our industry will be able to make the decisions and investments to substantially grow how much oil and gas we produce – and that is good for all Canadians. 

The opportunity before us is not only to produce more energy – even though that in itself is positive as global demand continues to grow and Canada is already one of the world’s most reliable and responsible producers. 

We would be strengthening our position on the global stage at a time when everyone is focused on energy security and seeking reliable trading partners.

The real opportunity is to use that increased production to further drive and improve the Canadian economy and our quality of life.

Oil and gas companies already pay billions of dollars every year in royalties and taxes, and those funds provide governments with greater fiscal capacity to pay for necessary services for Canadians. Over the last seven years, oil sands companies alone have paid 153 billion dollars to all levels of government.

Creating conditions where the industry can grow and sell more to global markets means we would also pay more in royalties and taxes, delivering increased and reliable funds that governments can invest across the country in healthcare, education, infrastructure like roads and bridges, and social programs. 

That increased revenue doesn’t just come from our companies alone. We employ thousands of businesses, in almost every province, through our supply chain, and they also pay their employees and their taxes, and contribute to their communities. 

If we just grow oil production by another 1.5 million barrels per day, which is about a one-third increase over today’s numbers, we will add 31 billion dollars to Canada’s GDP each year for the next decade, according to research conducted by ATB Economics and Studio Energy. 

That represents a 1.1% increase in Canada’s real GDP — a meaningful boost considering this country has struggled to raise GDP per person for more than a decade.

That increase would be on top of the 218 billion dollars contributed to GDP by the industry just last year.

Production growth would also provide an additional 112,000 good jobs, on top of the more than half a million direct and indirect jobs the industry already supports. Every job is more than a number, it is a career, and a pay cheque that takes care of families and buys from businesses in their communities.

A stronger oil and gas industry also benefits Indigenous communities and businesses in this country. From the ability to take ownership stakes in some projects to increased business and employment opportunities, we can help build economic resilience and job skills in Indigenous communities.

As we look to increase our production, we will invest more into innovation, which historically has resulted in improvements to processes, technology and environmental expertise and results, including emissions reductions, land reclamation and better water use.

In turn, these technology improvements can be applied or exported beyond Canada’s borders, creating new economic opportunities.

The bottom line is that when the oil and gas industry does well, so does Canada and so do all Canadians.

We will boost Canada’s economy and deliver benefits to communities across this country. 

The first step is to recognize everything that is waiting for us when we embrace being a global energy superpower.

I have been lucky enough to have been part of the Canadian oil and gas industry for over 35 years. And I have never been more optimistic and excited about its prospects.

When our company bought MEG Energy last year, I told our executive that this was Cenovus’s time to be bold. This was our time to shine.

I feel the same way about Canada right now. And while we have taken the long way around the barn to arrive at this moment – it is our time to be bold and our time to shine.

Thank you, God bless and enjoy the rest of the conference.

LAST UPDATED: OCTOBER 2026